GTA resale is slow and new condo sales are near record lows. Here is where Ontario mortgage files are coming from now, with the latest numbers, and how brokers are adjusting.
Written by A.I.M.I. Collective Mortgage Group, Brokerage editorial team
Published October 2026 · Last reviewed 6 October 2026
Official sources: TRREB: September 2026 market report, BILD: June 2026 GTA new home sales, Bank of Canada: how will mortgage payments change at renewal, TD Economics: Canadian mortgage renewals, March 2026, BNN Bloomberg: condo prices leave pre construction buyers struggling
Ontario resale is slow and new condo sales are near record lows, so purchase volume alone will not carry a book in 2026. GTA sales were 5,040 in September 2026, down 9% from a year earlier, at an average price of $1,006,409. The work has moved to renewals, refinances, pre construction closings with appraisal gaps, new low rise homes and B and private files. Brokers who can place alternative files and run a renewal book are best placed.
Most of the country's mortgages come up in 2025 and 2026. Clients are shopping, and a broker who calls first keeps the file.
Condos bought at the 2022 peak are closing below purchase price. Lenders advance on the new appraisal, so buyers need a bigger down payment, a B lender or a second mortgage to close.
Owners with equity and higher costs are rolling debt into the mortgage or extending amortization to bring payments down.
Low rise new home sales ran 36% above their 10 year average in June 2026 as the HST rebate took effect, while condos lagged.
Self employed borrowers, bruised credit and closing shortfalls push more files past the A lender line. These need Level 2 or broker licensing to place privately.
See how brokers here grow with direct access to more than 100 lenders, the Deal Desk and weekly lender training.
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board reported 5,040 GTA sales in September 2026, down 9% year over year. The average price was $1,006,409, down 5.1%, and the MLS Home Price Index was down 4.7%. New listings fell 14.4%. Buyers cited uncertainty about the economy, inflation and borrowing costs.
BILD reported 1,175 new home sales in the GTA in June 2026, still 52% below the 10 year average. Inside that number, 902 single family homes sold, 36% above average, while 273 condos sold, 85% below average. Unsold inventory stood at about 36 months of supply. For brokers, low rise new builds are a live purchase channel, and condo files are mostly closings, not new sales.
Buyers who paid peak prices for condos around four years ago are seeing values roughly 25% lower at closing. One reported case: a unit bought for about $650,000 appraised near $500,000. With lenders advancing about 80% of the new value, the buyer faced a shortfall of about $120,000. Files like this need early planning, an honest conversation about options, and access to B and private lenders.
The Bank of Canada estimated that about 60% of outstanding mortgages renew in 2025 or 2026, with five year fixed borrowers facing average payment increases of around 15 to 20%. By March 2026, TD Economics found the average 2026 renewal payment rising only about 6%, with the median slightly below zero, as more borrowers renew into lower rates. The opportunity has shifted from rescuing payment shock to winning clients who are comparing offers.
List every client maturing in the next year and contact them before their lender sends a renewal letter.
Upgrade to <a href="/guides/how-to-become-a-level-2-mortgage-agent-in-ontario">Level 2</a> or work with a desk that can place private and MIC files.
Learn which lenders allow higher loan to value or secondary financing on closings, and how they treat assignment and builder files.
New low rise homes are the strongest purchase segment. Builder sales teams and agents who sell them need a reliable broker.
Multi unit and small commercial files give you a second stream when residential purchases slow. See <a href="/guides/how-residential-mortgage-brokers-add-commercial-files">how residential brokers add commercial files</a>.
A.I.M.I. Collective's Ontario office is in Kitchener, led by Principal Mortgage Broker Tracy Valko, with brokers across the GTA, Southwestern Ontario and Ottawa. Brokers choose their own lenders, and the Deal Desk helps with B, private and commercial files when a deal needs another route.
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Busy, good at the job, and volume has not moved in three years. Why mortgage brokers plateau around $10 million and the five levers that break the ceiling.
The client lifetime value system for mortgage brokers: funded, thank you, annual review, refinance, renewal, referral, next purchase, and what to automate.
The lender sends a renewal letter 120 days out and the client signs because nobody else called. Why brokers lose renewals by default and how to keep them.
Book a discovery call with our Ontario team and see how brokers here handle renewals, closings and alternative files.